As of today, Bush leads Nevada by 5 or 6 points, depending on the poll you're reading. The statistical correction is +/- 4 points, so it looks like Bush will carry Nevada and its 5 electoral votes.
Still, I'm not going to rule out any large surprises, considering how hard the Kerry campaign is working Las Vegas and Clark County as a whole. The southern tip of the state has the highest concentration of people, the highest number of minorities, and the highest number of urban dwellers - if Dems get some more turnout, they could tip the state to their side, offsetting the ranchers and typically straight-laced Northerners.
Tomorrow should be fun.
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